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Tuesday, May 5, 2020

If Restrictions are Lifted too Soon, Be Ready to Welcome an Economic Depression?

Yet again, Trump insists that the US must be open no matter the cost, and the White House is considering to disband the coronavirus task force.

There is empirical evidence that lifting restrictions early due to sanitary reasons may prove even worse than keeping them until most of the danger is over.

Analysts are predicting the worst recession since 1929, and these predictions assume we are mostly over with the coronavirus in a year, others argue the pandemic could last up to 2 years. These predictions have been taken for relatively 'optimistic' scenarios. Add up that most probably this will not end at mid 2021. A vaccine needs to be approved, manufactured and administered to most of the population. In addition, there are newly discovered neurological symptoms associated to Covid-19, and other strange conditions (similar to Kawasaki Syndrome) affecting children.

The White House updated their estimates regarding infections and deaths, showing a deeper hit. Yet, how is it possible that Trump wants to open the economy pretty soon!

There is a lot we don't know yet about the virus. Its economic implications will worsen as the pandemic remains, and every bad call in government action regarding the virus, just nears us to a depression.

No Mr., opening the economy now, won't improve its prospects, that may sink it.

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