Previously I commented some preliminary already tangible aspects on the economy, regarding the coronavirus, yet the most important one remains. Prolonged Supply Chain Disruptions. This crisis has shown the heavy reliance the world has on China fo manufacturing. With a significant portion of its economy shutdown, overseas retailers depend on previous product stock to supply the markets. Nevertheless, since this shutdown doesn't appear to end soon, and neither does Covid-19, remaining stock will run out eventually. Recently, the first crisis-related drug shortage was identified in the US. Now, there are plenty of companies abroad that relay on Chinese manufacturing, and for companies to stay afloat amid less sales due to less product availability, is lo lay off workers. When workers are jobless, they won't spend much, further reducing demand, which is already dimming because of the prioritization on buying essential goods ahead of the imminent crisis.
Markets are tanking with deep corrections as well as bond yields lowering to record levels, neither the market nor the health sector see a near end to the situation.
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Momentarily Risking Schengen's Ideal Over Fears of a Coronavirus-Affected European Economy
We've seen how Italy is propagating the coronavirus inside Europe, there are cases in Austria, Switzerland, and more cases in France (via Italy) and Spain, in Barcelona and Tenerife. Still, Schengen border closures have been ruled out by the EU. I would rather say that the Italian border could be closed for the time being, based on the following arguments. First, patient zero in Italy hasn't been located consequently there is no known transmission route. Second, Italy is not a bastion in the European economy. Europe could be most affected by the spread of the coronavirus to the engine and heart of its economy than by the closure of borders with Italy. Since the containment in Italy is failing, the safest option would be to close borders.
Why do I Expect Stocks to Keep Falling
I expect stocks to keep falling through this week, since the failed coronavirus containment in Italy. Some analysts would have expected rebounds for Tuesday after Monday's slide sustaining their predictions on 'normal' precedents on the market. Nevertheless, in this case, we're facing a continuos myriad of coronavirus outbreak related announcements. Since they are not independent and distanced menaces, but continuos ones that risk to keep increasing, a rise on the market in the coming days would be certainly uncanny. With stocks poised to lower prices, investors would rather not buy until the situation becomes stable.
Update
With a statement deeming the spread of the virus over the US as inevitable, the previous arguments make a cause.
Update
With a statement deeming the spread of the virus over the US as inevitable, the previous arguments make a cause.
Gilead's Remdesivir Touted as Possibly Effective by the WHO
Remdesivir was touted yesterday as possibly effective against COVID-19 by the WHO. As a result of the announcement, the market increased its interest in Gilead Sciences' product, being one of the lone stocks winning market capitalization. Additionally, the results of clinical trials with remdesivir will be available within weeks, possibly in April.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
The Beginning of a "Possibly"-Pandemic-Fuelled Global Recession
The coronavirus that first appeared in China, menaces to slow the world economy and start a pandemic. Last week, some sectors in the market and the public became more optimistic on the outcome of the health crisis, given that the increase of cases in China had slowed down. At the dawn of the outbreak, China forcefully had to shutdown areas that represent 80% of its GDP and 90% of its exports, spurring work from home. The slowdown in China doesn't just represent a restraint in production, but in demand too. The demand slump refrains the "world's biggest car market" from buying, with a 92% fall in car sales. Besides, China accounts for the supplier of electronics, such as the iPhone, and a market that will neither buy phones for now, thus tanking Apple shares down. Adding up all the supply-chain disruptions, China's condition will badly hurt other economies. Their central bank has lowered interest rates to stimulate the economy, and taxes have been cut.
Now the spotlight in the outbreak is outside of China. The window to avert the pandemic, becomes smaller. Having the virus spread and spike in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.
As of 2017, 44% of South Korea's energy consumption accounted for petroleum, ethanol and biofuels and is the eight largest oil consumer in the world. Additionally, Samsung Electronics shutdown a phone factory in South Korea due to a case of coronavirus inside it. Yet, most of Samsung's production is outside of Korea.
If the containment in Italy is to fail, they surely will face recession. It was already an imminent risk because China is Italy's third largest supplier, plenty of their citizens do tourism in Italy and buy substantial amounts of their luxury goods. Notwithstanding, now with a perceptible risk within its borders, coronavirus ill-omens Italy's economy.
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Don't Loose Rules on Political Debt
In Costa Rica, parties participating in elections are reimbursed their justified and checked expenses. Thus avoiding fraudulent reported expenses that would seek to steal money from the state.
Now, representatives are discussing to lighten the requirements to ask for these reimbursements, by removing the background checks performed by the state. The approval of such a norm would only boost and encourage corruption. There have been several attempts from some political parties to access this money from the state for inexistent expenses, and these have been discovered and reported with the procedures stated in the current law.
If the mentioned law project is to be approved, Costa Rica's finances and democratic system will be putted at risk.
Now, representatives are discussing to lighten the requirements to ask for these reimbursements, by removing the background checks performed by the state. The approval of such a norm would only boost and encourage corruption. There have been several attempts from some political parties to access this money from the state for inexistent expenses, and these have been discovered and reported with the procedures stated in the current law.
If the mentioned law project is to be approved, Costa Rica's finances and democratic system will be putted at risk.
How Dare you Compare Virgin Galactic Rise to Tesla's
Virgin Galactic has risen lots in market value on the last few weeks fueled by bullish behavior. This company doesn't have any revenue as of yet. It may have risen, but it shall go down soon since its price has been driven by sheer speculation and isn't backed by data.
At least Tesla's latest rally began boosted by announcements on improvements in revenue and production, and later got sustained by bulls and cult buyers, at the latter falling more than $200. So I think it is safe to presume that the risk and volatility of investing in Virgin Galactic is to high at the moment, its shares could fall any day from now, it wouldn't be an intelligent investment. The rise on its value is just obscure and irrational.
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